Vital Wave is working with MERQ Consultancy and the Institute for Disease Modeling (IDM) to demonstrate the application of workforce capacity forecasting to MOH-led planning decisions in Ethiopia. The project includes an initial process of collecting context-specific data to input into a predictive model that forecasts long-term needs for human resources for health, as well as activities to handoff the model to MOH stakeholders for use in practice.
The project utilizes multiple iterative phases of work that build upon each other to accomplish these goals, including: 1) completing time and motion study (TMS) to develop baseline estimates for human resource time requirements for the provision of Health Extension Program tasks across multiple regions, 2) populating the Population-Aware Capacity Estimator for Human Resources for Health (PACE-HRH) model developed by IDM with validated data from the TMS and supplemental data for key inputs such as population structure, disease incidence and change rates, seasonality, and health post structure, 3) running the model to learn how it performs with real-world data to generate insights and understand limitations of model outputs, and 4) working closely with key stakeholders in MOH to develop capacity to use and adapt the model.
The PACE-HRH model is open source. Vital Wave and MERQ are among the first to use it with real-world time and motion data to establish robust estimates of time requirements per task and run it in the context of multiple subnational scenarios. The model outputs were adapted by Vital Wave to create a set of visualizations demonstrating projections of workforce needs. Further, IDM is building a user interface to make the model easier to use and facilitate comparison of regional forecasts, which may aid long-term adoption and use of the tool.
